Sunday, September 30, 2012

Does anyone seriously think paper has a future?

I love paper as much as anyone else. I love holding a physical book and flipping through physical magazines, but I'm not naive. I can look ahead and see that the future doesn't contain paper media. Maybe this future isn't in the next 5, 20, or even 50 years, but I'd guess that in 100 years paper will be a relic akin to leather bound collections of first edition books. So sure, a lot of people talk dramatically about the death of paper media when in actuality paper is still doing quite well, but why waste time talking about something that is obviously going to become obsolete during out lifetimes? Still doubtful? Over two years ago Amazon started selling more ebooks than hardcover books. There's still something to be said for physical media though. Seeing it around the house, feeling the pages, or even smelling the ink triggers memories. It takes up physical space and represents our related thoughts and memories. Physical books are not abstract like much of our digital worlds are. Lack of tangibility and abstraction will become an ever greater problem in the future for music, communication, relationships, books, magazines, and more. How we will handle the massive abstraction of our lives is hard to predict…
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4 comments:

  1. pargmanOctober 24, 2012 at 12:13 AM

    I'm not so sure. I think it's a toss-up between having more digital screens or less 100 years from (due to resource depletion of rare earth minerals as well as declining reserves of inexpensive (fossil) energy).

    We know paper works well in a low-tech environment. We don't know if it is possible to maintain a "simplified" digital infrastructure if (computing) resources gradually become more expensive.

    I know writing this is like swearing in the church, but do check out this 4 pages long text by Ugo Bardi, "The spike and the peak":
    http://www.theoildrum.com/pdf/theoildrum_3619.pdf

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  2. Ryan McLeodOctober 24, 2012 at 12:36 AM

    Thanks – *added to my reading list*

    Well if you want to go that route, you can argue all sorts of things. :P We may come up with smarter bio-materials that replace rare earths, or invent ways to completely recycle e-waste and even strip rare-earths out of older trash. And it's also entirely possible we return to much simpler way of living in the far future –one that includes paper products. There's over 100 million iPads in the world today, and while from a resources perspective that number is quite disturbing, the fact is these devices will become as ubiquitous as our smartphones.

    My point was more in regards to traditional media for the magazine industry. A general theme of many of the speakers we heard was that they tried to go digital and it didn't go so well so they're running back to hide under the rock that is traditional magazines. Paper is something they are comfortable with, and it may be doing better than digital editions right now, but it's _painfully_ clear from seeing what has happened to _every other media channel_ that they will ultimately fail, go bankrupt, and disappear unless they figure out how to "do digital right." Sure, it's uncomfortable and what they've done with interactive magazines and digital-editions hasn't gone well so far, but they need to keep working at it until they find something that does, or maybe they really do just need to fall apart and let something new take their place. Evolve or die.

    What originally inspired me to write this was from anger that we were even considering the future of paper magazines. To me it feels like investing in paper-book printing technology, or even gasoline cars. Sure they are profitable and are thriving industries, but it's fairly clear that these technologies have no real place for the general population in the next century or so.

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  3. Ryan McLeodOctober 24, 2012 at 12:42 AM

    Environmental degradation and unrenewable practices deeply concern me too, but short of a machine uprising scenario or the entire world returning to simpler ways, a future of digital ubiquity is coming.

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  4. pargmanNovember 6, 2012 at 9:22 AM

    But check out the "magazine for senses" group about very interesting ideas about the future of "paper" (physical materials).

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